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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
XCJ · 11 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 7 games
43%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 6 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
September · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 6 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
September · 5 games
40%

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddon
LaNm · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
80%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 10 games
70%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
413 picks · 940 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
376 picks · 539 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 701 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 547 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
311 picks · 309 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 218 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
282 picks · 155 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 281 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total86% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:28
Sparking Arrow Gaming 26%Team Aster 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 25:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
Snapfire7e
48% · 69 games44% · 26 games
Troll WarlordMonet
Troll Warlord
Underlord
UnderlordSon GoKu
52% · 44 games48% · 128 games
PuckWhite丶Album
Puck
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSeptember
52% · 146 games39% · 13 games
Legion CommanderXxs
Legion Commander
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorXCJ
55% · 10 games54% · 66 games
GrimstrokeBoBoKa
Grimstroke
51% · 36 games
Elder TitanLaNm
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct4:18
Sparking Arrow Gaming 26%Team Aster 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 13:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSon GoKu
45% · 10 games53% · 35 games
LeshracWhite丶Album
Leshrac
Snapfire
Snapfire7e
43% · 25 gameslittle data
BroodmotherXxs
Broodmother
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSeptember
43% · 28 games67% · 13 games
SpectreMonet
Spectre
Abaddon
AbaddonXCJ
39% · 27 games71% · 12 games
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
Shadow Demon
54% · 30 games
EnchantressLaNm
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 86%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2