Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Sparking Arrow Gamingwin 2:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ybb Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Hoodwink
XCJ · 8 games
Razoroften banned
MS · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Son GoKu · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Dstones · 6 games
Snapfiresignature
Son GoKu · 6 games
Disruptor
XCJ · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
September · 5 games
Axe
Son GoKu · 4 games
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
345 picks · 507 bans
Snapfire
309 picks · 173 bans
Bane
296 picks · 236 bans
Weaver
286 picks · 639 bans
Monkey King
257 picks · 732 bans
Tidehunter
257 picks · 394 bans
Ember Spirit
228 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
221 picks · 142 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 75%
Hero pool strength51% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Ybb Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:9
Sparking Arrow Gaming 35%Ybb Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 24:10.
Game 2prediction correct11:29
Sparking Arrow Gaming 35%Ybb Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 36:05.
Game 3prediction missed32:10
Sparking Arrow Gaming 35%Ybb Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 44:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteYbb Gaming · 65%
Series resultSparking Arrow Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3