1XPLORE Asia #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SPAWN Team
Rubick
TraVins · 12 games
Tiny
dalul · 11 games
Tusk
dalul · 11 games
Clockwerk
TraVins · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
MamangDaya · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
MamangDaya · 10 games
Windrangersignature
Jikroy · 10 games
Techiesoften banned
dalul · 9 games
Army Geniuses
Pugnasignature
db- · 14 games
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
Yowe · 9 games
Crystal Maiden
Varizh · 8 games
Doomoften banned
db- · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Yowe · 7 games
Rubick
Jhocam · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
623 picks · 676 bans
Rubick
481 picks · 290 bans
Batrider
431 picks · 892 bans
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 808 bans
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 393 bans
Doom
381 picks · 859 bans
Beastmaster
353 picks · 921 bans
Pugna
353 picks · 416 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:38
SPAWN Team 36%Army Geniuses 64%
The model gave 64% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter458
MedusainYourdreaM
Storm SpiritMamangDaya
Razordb-
TidehunterRed
Ember SpiritYowe
Skywrath Magedalul
EnchantressVarizh
Elder TitanTraVins
TuskJhocam
Game 2prediction correct12:37
SPAWN Team 35%Army Geniuses 65%
The model gave 65% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 26:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritMamangDaya
Dragon KnightYowe
LycanRed
Iodb-
Bloodseeker458
SlarkinYourdreaM
Liondalul
ClockwerkJhocam
Elder TitanTraVins
GrimstrokeVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 77%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2