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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 25 games
48%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 19 games
42%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 14 games
43%
Silencer
Silencer
TraVins · 13 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 12 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Jikroy · 11 games
55%

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 21 game
76%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 15 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
RR · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 9 games
78%
Lina
Linasignature
xsilearn · 9 games
89%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
zeal · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Hishge · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
948 picks · 637 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
656 picks · 456 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
568 picks · 906 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 441 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
538 picks · 533 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
508 picks · 336 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
484 picks · 1069 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
460 picks · 340 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:38
SPAWN Team 50%Myth Avenue Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonDreamocel
55% · 44 games45% · 137 games
Naga SirenMeracle
Naga Siren
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetwoMy
56% · 220 games43% · 179 games
DawnbreakerYoungGodLevi
Dawnbreaker
Necrophos
NecrophosMamangDaya
53% · 30 games44% · 320 games
Ember Spiritxsilearn
Ember Spirit
Tusk
Tuskdalul
54% · 276 games48% · 90 games
JakiroPlayHard
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorHyde
57% · 156 games
Game 2prediction correct19:44
SPAWN Team 49%Myth Avenue Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 47:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingDreamocel
49% · 166 games44% · 244 games
TerrorbladeYoungGodLevi
Terrorblade
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetwoMy
56% · 234 games50% · 458 games
Pangolierxsilearn
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyMamangDaya
53% · 476 games49% · 319 games
Primal BeastMeracle
Primal Beast
Techies
Techiesdalul
46% · 43 games51% · 109 games
JakiroPlayHard
Jakiro
Undying
UndyingHyde
53% · 211 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 52%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2