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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 24 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 22 games
41%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dalul · 16 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MamangDaya · 13 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Jikroy · 12 games
58%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Red · 10 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 10 games
60%

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 22 games
73%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 15 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
RR · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
zeal · 12 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 11 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Meracle · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
716 picks · 618 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
597 picks · 523 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
503 picks · 972 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1249 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
444 picks · 1113 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
437 picks · 895 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
417 picks · 221 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
414 picks · 595 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total52% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:17
SPAWN Team 49%Myth Avenue Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJikroy
54% · 348 games53% · 190 games
Puckxsilearn
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierMamangDaya
50% · 488 games56% · 304 games
Beastmasterzeal
Beastmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerdalul
49% · 97 games56% · 149 games
Faceless VoidKarma丶
Faceless Void
Windranger
WindrangerwoMy
38% · 118 games52% · 235 games
EnchantressMeracle
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesTraVins
52% · 244 games41% · 417 games
RubickPoloson
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed32:9
SPAWN Team 49%Myth Avenue Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 23:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJikroy
57% · 91 game60% · 97 games
MedusaKarma丶
Medusa
Windranger
WindrangerMamangDaya
41% · 93 games53% · 138 games
Magnusxsilearn
Magnus
Pugna
PugnawoMy
46% · 76 games50% · 167 games
Batriderzeal
Batrider
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerdalul
42% · 113 games46% · 98 games
SlarkPoloson
Slark
Disruptor
DisruptorTraVins
51% · 156 games51% · 29 games
BaneMeracle
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 52%
Series resultSPAWN Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2