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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 27 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 23 games
39%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 20 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 16 games
38%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 14 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MamangDaya · 13 games
54%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 13 games
38%

Neon Esports

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Hated · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hated · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Enryu · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
728 picks · 609 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
439 picks · 1056 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
425 picks · 703 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 1004 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 372 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
384 picks · 608 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
380 picks · 204 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:17
SPAWN Team 44%Neon Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJikroy
51% · 99 games44% · 38 games
Phantom LancerFortuneSoul
Phantom Lancer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMamangDaya
54% · 120 games49% · 211 games
PangolierKen
Pangolier
Axe
AxewoMy
60% · 6 games49% · 53 games
EarthshakerHishge
Earthshaker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magedalul
55% · 48 games
Oracle
OracleTraVins
48% · 29 games
Game 2prediction correct40:44
SPAWN Team 44%Neon Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 48:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingJikroy
57% · 118 games43% · 16 games
MuertaFortuneSoul
Muerta
Timbersaw
TimbersawMamangDaya
52% · 73 games47% · 171 game
Ember SpiritKen
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerwoMy
50% · 26 games51% · 87 games
Skywrath MageHishge
Skywrath Mage
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterdalul
55% · 21 game
Lich
LichTraVins
45% · 36 games
Game 3prediction missed35:22
SPAWN Team 39%Neon Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 45:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerJikroy
48% · 24 games49% · 153 games
BloodseekerKen
Bloodseeker
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderwoMy
47% · 13 games53% · 113 games
SlarkFortuneSoul
Slark
Pangolier
PangolierMamangDaya
48% · 145 games55% · 44 games
Spirit BreakerHishge
Spirit Breaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightdalul
46% · 49 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTraVins
51% · 79 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 66%
Series resultSPAWN Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3