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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 18 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 14 games
36%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 13 games
77%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MamangDaya · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Red · 10 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Jikroy · 10 games
60%

Neon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 12 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Hishge · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
40%
Silencer
Silencer
Hated · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
697 picks · 482 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
579 picks · 625 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1102 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 502 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1223 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
477 picks · 1043 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
463 picks · 678 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
457 picks · 915 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:35
SPAWN Team 45%Neon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJikroy
59% · 100 games48% · 135 games
MagnusFortuneSoul
Magnus
Broodmother
BroodmotherwoMy
45% · 98 games52% · 354 games
PangolierKen
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMamangDaya
51% · 174 games49% · 216 games
EnchantressHishge
Enchantress
Dark Willow
Dark Willowdalul
51% · 60 games
Undying
UndyingTraVins
47% · 273 games
Game 2prediction correct16:33
SPAWN Team 45%Neon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 27:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJikroy
53% · 168 games53% · 242 games
SlarkFortuneSoul
Slark
Snapfire
SnapfireMamangDaya
44% · 272 games52% · 198 games
MagnusKen
Magnus
Broodmother
BroodmotherwoMy
50% · 147 games45% · 662 games
RubickHishge
Rubick
Batrider
Batriderdalul
53% · 241 game
Undying
UndyingTraVins
49% · 274 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 61%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2