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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SPAWN Team

Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 18 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 14 games
36%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 13 games
77%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MamangDaya · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Red · 10 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Jikroy · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 10 games
60%

Polaris Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Bok · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Boomy · 14 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 13 games
69%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
42%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 10 games
60%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
80%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
696 picks · 489 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
564 picks · 1093 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
562 picks · 612 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
558 picks · 501 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
532 picks · 1219 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1036 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 668 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
456 picks · 912 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:14
SPAWN Team 43%Polaris Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJikroy
63% · 153 games41% · 73 games
Phantom LancerAkashi
Phantom Lancer
Broodmother
BroodmotherwoMy
45% · 91 game47% · 209 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireMamangDaya
46% · 158 games51% · 312 games
DoomEnryu
Doom
Techies
Techiesdalul
47% · 260 games51% · 168 games
Spirit BreakerBoomy
Spirit Breaker
Undying
UndyingTraVins
53% · 254 games54% · 154 games
Pugnacml
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct8:35
SPAWN Team 43%Polaris Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 24:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireMamangDaya
44% · 211 games54% · 187 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Morphling
MorphlingJikroy
48% · 158 games49% · 234 games
Monkey KingAkashi
Monkey King
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderwoMy
44% · 38 games50% · 166 games
EnigmaEnryu
Enigma
Techies
Techiesdalul
52% · 188 games54% · 96 games
EarthshakerBoomy
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTraVins
51% · 224 games53% · 136 games
Pugnacml
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct30:41
SPAWN Team 45%Polaris Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 45:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingJikroy
52% · 270 games36% · 6 games
MeepoAkashi
Meepo
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerwoMy
51% · 136 games48% · 240 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMamangDaya
51% · 190 games48% · 239 games
BeastmasterEnryu
Beastmaster
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magedalul
53% · 172 games50% · 357 games
BatriderBoomy
Batrider
Techies
TechiesTraVins
53% · 303 games47% · 229 games
Enchantresscml
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 64%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3