Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Flowloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SPAWN Team
Tusk
dalul · 17 games
Mirana
TraVins · 14 games
Rubick
TraVins · 14 games
Marcioften banned
dalul · 12 games
Silencer
TraVins · 12 games
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 11 games
Tiny
dalul · 10 games
Disruptor
TraVins · 9 games
Team Flow
Tiny
Mercury · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 3 games
Lion
czy · 3 games
Rubick
czy · 3 games
Bristleback
Unknown- · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
TrazaM · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mercury · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
543 picks · 360 bans
Tusk
508 picks · 494 bans
Tiny
492 picks · 426 bans
Treant Protector
373 picks · 448 bans
Mirana
356 picks · 351 bans
Snapfire
326 picks · 165 bans
Clockwerk
290 picks · 184 bans
Ember Spirit
289 picks · 712 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
SPAWN Team 57%Team Flow 43%
The model gave 57% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenJikroy
BatriderMercury
Keeper of the LightMamangDaya
MorphlingUnknown-
BeastmasterRed
PudgeNevermine
Tinydalul
Rubickczy
MiranaTraVins
TuskTrazaM
Game 2prediction correct22:7
SPAWN Team 57%Team Flow 43%
The model gave 57% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 19:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ViperMamangDaya
Death ProphetNevermine
BeastmasterRed
LifestealerUnknown-
Naga SirenJikroy
Ember SpiritMercury
Rubickdalul
Rikiczy
MiranaTraVins
Witch DoctorTrazaM
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 60%
Series resultSPAWN Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2