Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SPAWN Team
Disruptor
TraVins · 9 games
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 7 games
Tusk
dalul · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
Marcioften banned
dalul · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
dalul · 5 games
Mirana
TraVins · 4 games
Yangon Galacticos
Tinysignature
Ksh · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Outworld Destroyer
Young PH · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 285 bans
Marci
284 picks · 530 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 243 bans
Undying
258 picks · 451 bans
Pangolier
238 picks · 491 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 539 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 315 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:41
SPAWN Team 43%Yangon Galacticos 57%
The model gave 57% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperMamangDaya
LeshracYoung PH
SlarkJikroy
Ember SpiritKsh
TidehunterRed
MiranaTraVins
Tinydalul
Game 2prediction correct46:35
SPAWN Team 40%Yangon Galacticos 60%
The model gave 60% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 1:10:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerJikroy
MorphlingKsh
Primal BeastMamangDaya
PangolierYoung PH
Death ProphetRed
Techiesdalul
MiranaTraVins
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 65%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2