Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzswin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Brewmaster
Mitch · 3 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Mitch · 3 games
Rubick
dnz · 3 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
ThuG · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 2 games
Brame
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 4 games
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Focus · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
101 picks · 222 bans
Mars
96 picks · 197 bans
Earth Spirit
89 picks · 69 bans
Void Spirit
77 picks · 131 bans
Phoenix
71 picks · 77 bans
Undying
63 picks · 81 bans
Rubick
61 picks · 32 bans
Wraith King
61 picks · 61 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:22
Spider Pigzs 50%Brame 50%
The model gave 50% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNo!ob
RikiFocus
Naga Sirenlil pleb
BeastmasterSkyLark
BrewmasterMitch
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
Rubickdnz
Ancient ApparitionSsaSpartan
Death ProphetLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct39:43
Spider Pigzs 55%Brame 45%
The model gave 55% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 52:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenlil pleb
WeaverFocus
BatriderNo!ob
LycanSkyLark
Dark SeerMitch
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
JakiroLeBronDota
OracleSsaSpartan
Tuskdnz
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 58%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2