Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzswin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bburjuiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 6 games
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mitch · 5 games
Rubick
dnz · 5 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Mitch · 4 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Mitch · 3 games
burjui
Earth Spirit
KiLLoManceR · 5 games
Disruptor
Atoufix · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Max · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Atoufix · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Max · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
canceL^^ · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Atoufix · 2 games
Puckoften banned
canceL^^ · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
158 picks · 278 bans
Puck
155 picks · 356 bans
Earth Spirit
143 picks · 116 bans
Void Spirit
135 picks · 195 bans
Phoenix
120 picks · 136 bans
Keeper of the Light
105 picks · 193 bans
Nyx Assassin
104 picks · 359 bans
Rubick
102 picks · 53 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 29%
Hero pool strength63% Spider Pigzs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Spider Pigzs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:17
Spider Pigzs 70%burjui 30%
The model gave 70% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordThuG
WeaverMax
LinaNo!ob
InvokercanceL^^
Death ProphetMitch
Earth SpiritKiLLoManceR
Earthshakerdnz
Witch DoctorAtoufix
BrewmasterLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct43:14
Spider Pigzs 68%burjui 32%
The model gave 68% on Spider Pigzs — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerThuG
Anti-MageMax
Void SpiritNo!ob
Nature's ProphetAtoufix
Sand KingMitch
Monkey KingcanceL^^
Miranadnz
PhoenixKiLLoManceR
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteSpider Pigzs · 80%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2