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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzswin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 14 games
36%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 12 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fervian · 11 games
55%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Koma` · 11 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 10 games
50%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 19 games
79%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Gilgir · 17 games
35%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
416 picks · 170 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
310 picks · 467 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
310 picks · 520 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 619 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
296 picks · 730 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
278 picks · 159 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
275 picks · 355 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
263 picks · 217 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total74% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:9
Spider Pigzs 37%Hellbear Smashers 63%
The model gave 63% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 23:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerlightless
50% · 32 games48% · 283 games
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
47% · 138 games56% · 95 games
LunaAce
Luna
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFunn1k
60% · 116 games47% · 51 game
EnigmaGeneRaL
Enigma
Lion
LionOmaR
50% · 291 game47% · 140 games
AbaddontOfu
Abaddon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLeBronDota
50% · 95 games43% · 103 games
Earth SpiritGilgir
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct24:45
Spider Pigzs 37%Hellbear Smashers 63%
The model gave 63% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinlightless
59% · 111 games47% · 88 games
LifestealerAce
Lifestealer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNo!ob
45% · 244 games51% · 152 games
PangolierGeneRaL
Pangolier
Axe
AxeFunn1k
48% · 102 games45% · 331 game
PuckStormstormer
Puck
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOmaR
46% · 204 games50% · 195 games
PhoenixtOfu
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLeBronDota
56% · 208 games53% · 103 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed46:26
Spider Pigzs 35%Hellbear Smashers 65%
The model gave 65% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 56:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerlightless
48% · 41 game59% · 101 game
TerrorbladeAce
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
54% · 89 games51% · 83 games
Dragon KnightStormstormer
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingFunn1k
50% · 63 gameslittle data
PudgeGeneRaL
Pudge
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOmaR
41% · 39 games49% · 98 games
GrimstroketOfu
Grimstroke
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLeBronDota
43% · 73 games43% · 23 games
Crystal MaidenGilgir
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 74%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3