Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzswin 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RGRecast Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 15 games
Rubick
dnz · 15 games
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 15 games
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 13 games
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 11 games
Clockwerk
dnz · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 10 games
Recast Gaming
Beastmastersignature
LastHero- · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Alexxo · 7 games
Clockwerk
Alexxo · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Alexxo · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Koma` · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TANNER · 3 games
Slardaroften banned
LastHero- · 3 games
Tiny
TANNER · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
355 picks · 749 bans
Void Spirit
333 picks · 442 bans
Mars
287 picks · 503 bans
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 219 bans
Death Prophet
243 picks · 385 bans
Rubick
237 picks · 137 bans
Keeper of the Light
223 picks · 469 bans
Wraith King
219 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Recast Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Recast Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:27
Spider Pigzs 44%Recast Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by Recast Gaming in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYuma
JuggernautKoma`
Death ProphetMitch
PangolierTANNER
Void SpiritNo!ob
Centaur WarrunnerLastHero-
EarthshakerFervian
Clockwerk5up
GrimstrokeLeBronDota
Shadow DemonPeksu
Game 2prediction missed26:9
Spider Pigzs 46%Recast Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 27:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingYuma
TerrorbladeKoma`
LycanNo!ob
PuckTANNER
Nyx AssassinFervian
MarsLastHero-
WarlockLeBronDota
Keeper of the Light5up
AlchemistMitch
Death ProphetPeksu
Game 3prediction missed36:19
Spider Pigzs 45%Recast Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Recast Gaming — the game was taken by Spider Pigzs in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterYuma
MorphlingKoma`
KunkkaNo!ob
PuckTANNER
IoLeBronDota
Death ProphetLastHero-
AlchemistMitch
Shadow Shaman5up
Nyx AssassinFervian
TuskPeksu
Model check result
Model favoriteRecast Gaming · 60%
Series resultSpider Pigzs 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3