Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tickleswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spider Pigzs
Hoodwink
LeBronDota · 20 games
Lion
OmaR · 18 games
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 14 games
Snapfire
No!ob · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
Team Tickles
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
321 picks · 458 bans
Bane
273 picks · 208 bans
Monkey King
263 picks · 697 bans
Snapfire
263 picks · 147 bans
Tidehunter
261 picks · 395 bans
Weaver
257 picks · 555 bans
Lion
210 picks · 98 bans
Ember Spirit
209 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:24
Spider Pigzs 28%Team Tickles 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 28:40.
Game 2prediction correct8:24
Spider Pigzs 28%Team Tickles 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 22:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 72%
Series resultTeam Tickles 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2