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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spider Pigzs

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 15 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 15 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 13 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 13 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 10 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 9 games
44%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 6 games
67%
Viper
Viperoften banned
hAze · 5 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 4 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
457 picks · 180 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 544 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 478 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 807 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 616 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
293 picks · 234 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
284 picks · 363 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:20
Spider Pigzs 46%V-Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 18:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNo!ob
48% · 108 games51% · 44 games
MedusaTA2000
Medusa
Timbersaw
TimbersawFunn1k
51% · 90 games56% · 58 games
ViperhAze
Viper
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerlightless
53% · 32 games46% · 65 games
Dragon Knightlaise
Dragon Knight
Jakiro
JakiroMitch
little data51% · 41 game
Dark WillowArrOw
Dark Willow
47% · 22 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 58%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1