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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ascent Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hara · 7 games
29%
Muerta
Muerta
TK · 6 games
33%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
20%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 5 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hara · 5 games
40%

Ascent Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
czy · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TrazaM · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
TrazaM · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
0%
Muerta
Muerta
TrazaM · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
50%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
czy · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrider
TrazaM · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
455 picks · 594 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
383 picks · 413 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
333 picks · 473 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
328 picks · 400 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
309 picks · 597 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
296 picks · 161 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 344 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
269 picks · 785 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Ascent Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:39
Spiky Gaming 59%Ascent Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Ascent Esports in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckButterflyEffect
54% · 148 games47% · 80 games
Shadow FiendRA1NCLOUD
Shadow Fiend
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerManic
40% · 7 games46% · 144 games
Crystal Maidenczy
Crystal Maiden
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker生死
55% · 51 game48% · 137 games
Dark WillowTrazaM
Dark Willow
Pudge
PudgeHara
47% · 30 games
Lion
LionTK
55% · 125 games
Game 2prediction correct39:28
Spiky Gaming 56%Ascent Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinButterflyEffect
48% · 70 games53% · 145 games
Shadow FiendRA1NCLOUD
Shadow Fiend
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritManic
46% · 25 games50% · 72 games
Nyx AssassinTrazaM
Nyx Assassin
Magnus
Magnus生死
52% · 25 games49% · 120 games
Marciczy
Marci
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTK
45% · 81 game
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHara
56% · 136 games
Game 3prediction correct31:18
Spiky Gaming 55%Ascent Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 27:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
47% · 18 games56% · 140 games
Shadow FiendRA1NCLOUD
Shadow Fiend
Weaver
WeaverManic
53% · 54 games56% · 37 games
Ogre Magiczy
Ogre Magi
Marci
Marci生死
41% · 41 game52% · 136 games
Earth SpiritTrazaM
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTK
42% · 87 games
Tusk
TuskHara
45% · 113 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 63%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3