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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
crychicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 7 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hara · 7 games
29%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hara · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Manic · 4 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Manic · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 4 games
0%

crychic

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
435 picks · 558 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
375 picks · 382 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 444 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
317 picks · 375 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 579 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
279 picks · 149 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 342 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
258 picks · 978 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% crychic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:25
Spiky Gaming 71%crychic 29%
The model gave 71% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by crychic in 33:40.
Game 2prediction correct14:2
Spiky Gaming 71%crychic 29%
The model gave 71% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 14:45.
Game 3prediction correct32:4
Spiky Gaming 71%crychic 29%
The model gave 71% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 16:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 71%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3