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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dark Horseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hara · 1 game
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Xwy · 1 game
0%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Hara · 1 game
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Xwy · 1 game
0%

Dark Horse

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sheep · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
sheep · 3 games
33%
Techies
Techies
sheep · 3 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
sheep · 2 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
sheep · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 1 game
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
sheep · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 223 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 694 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
433 picks · 610 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 387 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 746 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
386 picks · 161 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 751 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
347 picks · 1036 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Dark Horse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Dark Horse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:24
Spiky Gaming 48%Dark Horse 52%
The model gave 52% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 42:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerManic
52% · 27 games55% · 50 games
Bane谢乐zzz张泽中
Bane
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXwy
53% · 33 games47% · 50 games
Iosheep
Io
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHara
43% · 40 games
Game 2prediction correct36:14
Spiky Gaming 50%Dark Horse 50%
The model gave 50% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerManic
54% · 52 games48% · 105 games
Dark Willowsheep
Dark Willow
Zeus
ZeusXwy
49% · 57 games51% · 90 games
Clockwerk谢乐zzz张泽中
Clockwerk
Tiny
TinyHara
49% · 86 games
Model check result
Model favoriteDark Horse · 54%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2