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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Trustwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
TK · 6 games
33%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Manic · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 5 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hara · 5 games
40%

Team Trust

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
冷鸟 · 1 game
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Tz. · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
冷鸟 · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Tz. · 1 game
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Q7 · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 621 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
461 picks · 531 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 576 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
378 picks · 191 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
367 picks · 405 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
356 picks · 263 bans
50%
Invoker
Invoker
337 picks · 922 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 691 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Spiky Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:50
Spiky Gaming 69%Team Trust 31%
The model gave 69% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Team Trust in 51:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistManic
52% · 62 games52% · 45 games
Underlord冷鸟
Underlord
Magnus
Magnus生死
56% · 38 games50% · 12 games
SpectreMangO
Spectre
Muerta
MuertaTK
50% · 76 games47% · 135 games
Dark Willow出省
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanHara
42% · 16 games
Game 2prediction correct43:31
Spiky Gaming 66%Team Trust 34%
The model gave 66% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeManic
46% · 58 games53% · 135 games
MedusaMangO
Medusa
Mars
Mars生死
47% · 125 games50% · 51 game
Night Stalker冷鸟
Night Stalker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTK
50% · 122 games52% · 222 games
Lion出省
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixHara
50% · 103 games
Game 3prediction missed25:46
Spiky Gaming 67%Team Trust 33%
The model gave 67% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Team Trust in 36:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristleback生死
47% · 107 games48% · 113 games
Templar AssassinMangO
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightManic
53% · 205 games54% · 226 games
Primal Beast冷鸟
Primal Beast
Pugna
PugnaHara
47% · 117 games51% · 199 games
Dark Willow出省
Dark Willow
Muerta
MuertaTK
49% · 109 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 82%
Series resultTeam Trust 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3