DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Titanwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spiky Gaming
Muerta
TK · 11 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
Dark Willow
TK · 6 games
Dawnbreakersignature
生死 · 6 games
Doomoften banned
生死 · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 5 games
Lion
TK · 5 games
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
zzq · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
412 picks · 534 bans
Muerta
403 picks · 333 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 386 bans
Lion
354 picks · 176 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 582 bans
Batrider
348 picks · 431 bans
Beastmaster
335 picks · 794 bans
Phoenix
325 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Spiky Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:40
Spiky Gaming 31%Titan 69%
The model gave 69% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 35:38.
Game 2prediction correct27:26
Spiky Gaming 31%Titan 69%
The model gave 69% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 42:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 69%
Series resultTitan 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2