PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Titanwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spiky Gaming
Muerta
TK · 12 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
Doomoften banned
生死 · 8 games
Dark Willow
TK · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
Lionsignature
TK · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 6 games
Titan
Grimstroke
mercy · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
zzq · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
432 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
408 picks · 543 bans
Lion
361 picks · 190 bans
Batrider
360 picks · 457 bans
Tusk
356 picks · 375 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 586 bans
Gyrocopter
342 picks · 548 bans
Phoenix
338 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Spiky Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:22
Spiky Gaming 33%Titan 67%
The model gave 67% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 25:18.
Game 2prediction correct11:28
Spiky Gaming 33%Titan 67%
The model gave 67% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 31:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 67%
Series resultTitan 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2