DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTToLight Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spiky Gaming
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
Muerta
TK · 8 games
Dark Willow
TK · 6 games
Dawnbreakersignature
生死 · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 5 games
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
ToLight Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 512 bans
Muerta
395 picks · 320 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 384 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 567 bans
Lion
339 picks · 164 bans
Batrider
335 picks · 418 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 760 bans
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% ToLight Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:6
Spiky Gaming 69%ToLight Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 24:44.
Game 2prediction correct33:20
Spiky Gaming 69%ToLight Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 34:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 69%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2