The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UUnderdogloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spiky Gaming
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hara · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Hara · 1 game
Clockwerk
Hara · 1 game
Underdog
Chaos Knightoften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Clinkz
Q7 · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
Q7 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 225 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 749 bans
Gyrocopter
433 picks · 418 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 630 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 742 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
354 picks · 1021 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 727 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Underdog
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Underdog
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:21
Spiky Gaming 48%Underdog 52%
The model gave 52% on Underdog — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyManic
Chaos KnightQ7
Dragon KnightXwy
Earth SpiritHara
Game 2prediction correct28:2
Spiky Gaming 51%Underdog 49%
The model gave 51% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 20:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoManic
Arc WardenQ7
RazorXwy
Dark WillowHara
Model check result
Model favoriteUnderdog · 55%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2