?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Hara · 7 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hara · 6 games
33%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hara · 5 games
40%
Muerta
Muerta
Manic · 4 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 4 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Manic · 3 games
67%

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 22 games
68%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 19 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 17 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 16 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ame · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ame · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
427 picks · 538 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
373 picks · 369 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 439 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
312 picks · 369 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 566 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
275 picks · 145 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
262 picks · 339 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
256 picks · 962 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 35%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:24
Spiky Gaming 27%Xtreme Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeManic
45% · 83 games56% · 93 games
Shadow Fiendlou
Shadow Fiend
Doom
Doom生死
49% · 179 games58% · 212 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
48% · 147 games53% · 312 games
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderTK
48% · 275 games40% · 86 games
MuertaPyw
Muerta
Pudge
PudgeHara
50% · 36 games62% · 17 games
Ogre MagiPoloson
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct26:38
Spiky Gaming 28%Xtreme Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendManic
48% · 176 games46% · 198 games
Lunalou
Luna
Bristleback
Bristleback生死
55% · 116 games51% · 51 game
Dawnbreakerniu
Dawnbreaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
57% · 201 game39% · 61 game
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTK
51% · 247 games50% · 203 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiHara
53% · 34 games49% · 261 game
ClockwerkPoloson
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 86%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2