Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
sQreen's Squadloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MoneyMakerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
sQreen's Squad
Enchantressoften banned
sQreen · 2 games
Clockwerk
sQreen · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
Spirit Breaker
Actor · 1 game
Techies
ArrOw · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Actor · 1 game
MoneyMakers
Rubick
Bignum · 18 games
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 12 games
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
Phoenix
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
707 picks · 604 bans
Disruptor
572 picks · 500 bans
Beastmaster
473 picks · 1155 bans
Doom
466 picks · 860 bans
Ember Spirit
423 picks · 1067 bans
Pangolier
401 picks · 859 bans
Enchantress
397 picks · 569 bans
Mirana
395 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% sQreen's Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% MoneyMakers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:27
sQreen's Squad 42%MoneyMakers 58%
The model gave 58% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 25:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritDodren
Faceless VoidLukas
WindrangerActor
PangolierEgor
RubickArrOw
MagnusBb3px
MedusasQreen
BatriderBignum
47% · 85 games
PugnaCeMaTheSlayeR
Game 2prediction correct15:25
sQreen's Squad 42%MoneyMakers 58%
The model gave 58% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 27:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomActor
MedusaLukas
Monkey KingDodren
BeastmasterBb3px
SnapfireArrOw
Keeper of the LightEgor
LichsQreen
PugnaBignum
53% · 323 games
ClockwerkCeMaTheSlayeR
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyMakers · 62%
Series resultMoneyMakers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2