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ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO4
result vs prediction
Squelch Kommandowin 1:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Squelch Kommando

Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Koma` · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
so bad · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 1 game
0%

B8 Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 11 games
27%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 11 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yuma · 9 games
78%
Magnus
Magnus
Limitless · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 9 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 8 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Davai · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
426 picks · 171 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 476 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 617 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
303 picks · 689 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
294 picks · 516 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
281 picks · 118 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
260 picks · 341 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
257 picks · 327 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Squelch Kommando
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:17
Squelch Kommando 53%B8 Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Squelch Kommando — the game was taken by Squelch Kommando in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKoma`
48% · 19 games51% · 66 games
LunaWatson
Luna
Invoker
Invokerre1bl
52% · 75 games43% · 16 games
Night StalkerLimitless
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
50% · 54 games50% · 50 games
Ember SpiritDendi
Ember Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernso bad
44% · 73 games56% · 89 games
Nyx Assassin[T]SA
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteSquelch Kommando · 54%
Series resultSquelch Kommando 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1