ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionSKSquelch Kommandowin 1:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
X3loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Squelch Kommando
Drow Rangeroften banned
Koma` · 1 game
Elder Titan
so bad · 1 game
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 1 game
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 1 game
X3
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
426 picks · 171 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 475 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 617 bans
Puck
304 picks · 689 bans
Mars
295 picks · 515 bans
Hoodwink
280 picks · 118 bans
Lina
261 picks · 340 bans
Dragon Knight
259 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Squelch Kommando
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteSquelch Kommando · 52%
Series resultSquelch Kommando 1:0
Series predictioncorrect