IESF World Esports Championship 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
СШАloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Австралияwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
США
No games played over 6 months.
Австралия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
468 picks · 631 bans
Clockwerk
402 picks · 446 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 491 bans
Luna
343 picks · 425 bans
Enchantress
318 picks · 624 bans
Dark Willow
314 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
301 picks · 371 bans
Batrider
281 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% США
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% США
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:44
США 58%Австралия 42%
The model gave 58% on США — the game was taken by Австралия in 44:23.
Game 2prediction missed21:46
США 58%Австралия 42%
The model gave 58% on США — the game was taken by Австралия in 39:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteСША · 58%
Series resultАвстралия 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2