Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Stellar Gamingloss 0:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team NextUpwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Stellar Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team NextUp
Batrideroften banned
VaniLLl · 11 games
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
467 picks · 222 bans
Tiny
412 picks · 643 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 366 bans
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 564 bans
Batrider
394 picks · 703 bans
Rubick
368 picks · 159 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
Shadow Demon
330 picks · 935 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 29%
Hero pool strength55% Stellar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Stellar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:34
Stellar Gaming 50%Team NextUp 50%
The model gave 50% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightRvze
Ursa7jesu
Winter Wyvernkrol9ash
Templar AssassinMirage
70% · 15 games
Legion CommanderMiyaoo
54% · 33 games
DisruptorHappyDyurara
Model check result
Model favoriteStellar Gaming · 54%
Series resultTeam NextUp 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1