PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Storm Squadloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Montewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Storm Squad
No games played over 6 months.
Monte
Rubick
QBFY · 14 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 13 games
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
Brewmasteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 11 games
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
408 picks · 442 bans
Rubick
407 picks · 324 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 877 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 719 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 515 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 485 bans
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 32%
Hero pool strength53% Storm Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Monte
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
Storm Squad 33%Monte 67%
The model gave 67% on Monte — the game was taken by Monte in 23:09.
Game 2prediction correct39:34
Storm Squad 33%Monte 67%
The model gave 67% on Monte — the game was taken by Monte in 40:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonte · 67%
Series resultMonte 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2