Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Storm Strikerswin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HFloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Storm Strikers
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Treant Protectorsignature
SOhY · 10 games
Tusk
toshiyb · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 9 games
Techies
weebian · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
Mirana
SOhY · 8 games
Rubick
Heaven · 8 games
Tiny
toshiyb · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 586 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 439 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 377 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 689 bans
Beastmaster
411 picks · 962 bans
Undying
401 picks · 587 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 207 bans
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 898 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Storm Strikers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:35
Storm Strikers 44%HF 56%
The model gave 56% on HF — the game was taken by Storm Strikers in 59:43.
Game 2prediction missed42:21
Storm Strikers 44%HF 56%
The model gave 56% on HF — the game was taken by Storm Strikers in 32:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 56%
Series resultStorm Strikers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2