Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmwin 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
cybercatsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
StoRm
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
Tiny
RodjER · 10 games
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 8 games
cybercats
Techiesoften banned
jesv · 15 games
Rubick
jesv · 14 games
Disruptor
forcemajor · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 10 games
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 9 games
Doomoften banned
zenica · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
DkFogas · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
727 picks · 532 bans
Disruptor
595 picks · 515 bans
Doom
557 picks · 1093 bans
Beastmaster
555 picks · 1241 bans
Techies
532 picks · 589 bans
Pangolier
471 picks · 936 bans
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1063 bans
Enchantress
456 picks · 655 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:5
StoRm 46%cybercats 54%
The model gave 54% on cybercats — the game was taken by StoRm in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusakrylat
Phantom LancerDarkLord^
Queen of Painnicky`cool
LycanDkFogas
Legion CommanderDominic
Pangolieryoung G
ChenSoNNeikO
Techiesforcemajor
Spirit BreakerOneJey
EnchantressDukalis
Game 2prediction correct17:20
StoRm 45%cybercats 55%
The model gave 55% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 34:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautkrylat
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
DoomDominic
Ember Spirityoung G
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
BeastmasterDkFogas
Keeper of the LightOneJey
BatriderDukalis
SilencerSoNNeikO
Pugnaforcemajor
Game 3prediction missed24:31
StoRm 44%cybercats 56%
The model gave 56% on cybercats — the game was taken by StoRm in 59:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingkrylat
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Snapfirenicky`cool
BroodmotherDkFogas
EnigmaDominic
Storm Spirityoung G
Spirit BreakerOneJey
Rubickforcemajor
Crystal MaidenSoNNeikO
OracleDukalis
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 62%
Series resultStoRm 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3