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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

StoRm

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 13 games
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RodjER · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 8 games
13%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
50%

Matreshka Team

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 8 games
38%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Retsu · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lagoona · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 5 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 5 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
713 picks · 615 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
595 picks · 518 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
497 picks · 1235 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
497 picks · 960 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
442 picks · 1102 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
431 picks · 885 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
416 picks · 221 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
411 picks · 591 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 68%
Hero pool strength55% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:10
StoRm 46%Matreshka Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by StoRm in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladekrylat
43% · 103 games52% · 117 games
SlarkRetsu
Slark
Doom
Doomemptiness
53% · 158 games43% · 3 games
MeepoNattyNarwhal
Meepo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
51% · 95 games42% · 78 games
Spirit BreakermeLes
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
55% · 47 games51% · 199 games
TechiesLagoona
Techies
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
52% · 88 games53% · 94 games
LichJANTER
Lich
Game 2prediction missed56:55
StoRm 48%Matreshka Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by StoRm in 1:01:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightkrylat
51% · 81 game54% · 208 games
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Void Spirit
Pangolier
Pangoliernicky`cool
57% · 309 games42% · 108 games
WindrangerRetsu
Windranger
Techies
TechiesOneJey
56% · 187 games47% · 247 games
BatridermeLes
Batrider
Venomancer
VenomancerSoNNeikO
47% · 82 games47% · 53 games
Earth SpiritLagoona
Earth Spirit
Magnus
Magnusemptiness
44% · 144 games52% · 187 games
SilencerJANTER
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 57%
Series resultStoRm 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2