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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
StoRmwin 1:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

StoRm

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
30%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
OneJey · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
RodjER · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 9 games
11%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
emptiness · 8 games
38%

Natus Vincere Junior

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 12 games
42%
Mirana
Mirana
Riddys · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ri4man · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Ri4man · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
688 picks · 477 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
611 picks · 641 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
568 picks · 1111 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
521 picks · 493 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
516 picks · 1234 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
483 picks · 1050 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 679 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
450 picks · 922 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:13
StoRm 54%Natus Vincere Junior 46%
The model gave 54% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertakrylat
50% · 41 game51% · 167 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Zeus
Zeusnicky`cool
45% · 120 games51% · 265 games
PangolierRi4man
Pangolier
Enigma
Enigmaemptiness
54% · 332 games50% · 122 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOneJey
51% · 265 games46% · 418 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
49% · 469 games52% · 255 games
UndyingRiddys
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 58%
Series resultStoRm 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1