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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

StoRm

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 18 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Dominic · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 10 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Dominic · 10 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
nicky`cool · 9 games
67%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
OneJey · 8 games
63%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 8 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
86%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
so bad · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 13 games
62%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 13 games
85%
Rubick
Rubick
Hellscream · 11 games
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 10 games
60%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 10 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
331 picks · 161 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
249 picks · 325 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
208 picks · 423 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
207 picks · 315 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
201 picks · 383 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
198 picks · 427 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
196 picks · 112 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
188 picks · 283 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:23
StoRm 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordDarkLord^
42% · 54 games46% · 91 game
SvenUlnit
Sven
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDominic
54% · 206 games46% · 142 games
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Void Spirit
Pangolier
Pangoliernicky`cool
54% · 246 games42% · 108 games
MarsXibbe
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSoNNeikO
53% · 44 games56% · 160 games
Treant ProtectorHellscream
Treant Protector
53% · 49 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct14:38
StoRm 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
49% · 54 games49% · 160 games
TerrorbladeUlnit
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDominic
57% · 391 game53% · 70 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Kunkka
Kunkkanicky`cool
44% · 82 games53% · 162 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
45% · 124 games55% · 189 games
UndyingPanto
Undying
45% · 70 games
InvokerHellscream
Invoker
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 72%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2