Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
StoRm
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
Tiny
RodjER · 10 games
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 8 games
SIBE Team
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 5 games
Doomoften banned
klassnokruto · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
erase · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
737 picks · 582 bans
Disruptor
610 picks · 524 bans
Beastmaster
557 picks · 1292 bans
Doom
550 picks · 1097 bans
Techies
496 picks · 558 bans
Pangolier
472 picks · 955 bans
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1120 bans
Enchantress
453 picks · 647 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 35%
Hero pool strength51% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:12
StoRm 50%SIBE Team 50%
The model gave 50% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautkrylat
Medusanesfeer
DoomDominic
Linaerase
Pangoliernicky`cool
Beastmasterklassnokruto
ChenSoNNeikO
Enchantressvelheor
TechiesOneJey
Game 2prediction missed43:31
StoRm 47%SIBE Team 53%
The model gave 53% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by StoRm in 56:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawnicky`cool
Naga Sirennesfeer
Muertakrylat
Pangoliererase
BroodmotherDominic
Magnusklassnokruto
Spirit BreakerSoNNeikO
Rubickvelheor
PugnaOneJey
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 52%
Series resultStoRm 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2