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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Sexywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

StoRm

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tiny
RodjER · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 9 games
44%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
OneJey · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 8 games
13%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
38%

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 13 games
69%
Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 9 games
100%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 7 games
86%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
703 picks · 494 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
565 picks · 506 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
563 picks · 1094 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
553 picks · 604 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1217 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1037 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
460 picks · 917 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 665 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 65%
Hero pool strength65% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:30
StoRm 42%Team Sexy 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
51% · 212 games50% · 118 games
Juggernaut7jesu
Juggernaut
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerkrylat
48% · 168 games53% · 182 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderOneJey
53% · 289 games41% · 98 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderDominic
48% · 61 game52% · 183 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
50% · 90 games52% · 239 games
TechiesHduo
Techies
Game 2prediction correct29:29
StoRm 43%Team Sexy 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 55:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautkrylat
42% · 55 games48% · 158 games
Medusa7jesu
Medusa
Pangolier
Pangoliernicky`cool
47% · 206 games58% · 164 games
LeshracMirage
Leshrac
Doom
DoomDominic
47% · 188 games53% · 155 games
Spirit BreakerNefrit
Spirit Breaker
Techies
TechiesOneJey
55% · 190 games38% · 46 games
Clinkz9Class
Clinkz
Chen
ChenSoNNeikO
53% · 46 games54% · 162 games
PugnaHduo
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 63%
Series resultTeam Sexy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2