Streamers League #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Stray Teamwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gorgc Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Stray Team
Ogre Magi
balod9l · 4 games
Spirit Breaker
Goodoq · 4 games
Necrophosoften banned
Stray · 3 games
Rubick
Vovapain · 3 games
Sniperoften banned
Stray · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
zvёzd · 2 games
Ancient Apparition
Vovapain · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
zvёzd · 2 games
Gorgc Team
Tinkeroften banned
Excalibur · 3 games
Axeoften banned
sheepsticked · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
SingSing · 2 games
Arc Warden
Excalibur · 1 game
Bane
pieliedie · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Gorgc · 1 game
Magnus
Gorgc · 1 game
Necrophosoften banned
Gorgc · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
632 picks · 446 bans
Rubick
597 picks · 340 bans
Pangolier
434 picks · 641 bans
Phoenix
422 picks · 486 bans
Tiny
397 picks · 359 bans
Storm Spirit
337 picks · 381 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 496 bans
Puck
318 picks · 976 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Stray Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Stray Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
Stray Team 60%Gorgc Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Stray Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendzvёzd
PuckExcalibur
NecrophosStray
LifestealerGorgc
PudgeDkFogas
Axesheepsticked
TuskVovapain
Grimstrokepieliedie
ClockwerkGoodoq
Skywrath MageSingSing
Game 2prediction correct35:26
Stray Team 59%Gorgc Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Stray Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 36:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladezvёzd
DoomGorgc
NecrophosStray
Ember SpiritExcalibur
Centaur WarrunnerDkFogas
Brewmastersheepsticked
ClockwerkGoodoq
MiranaSingSing
TuskVovapain
Banepieliedie
Model check result
Model favoriteStray Team · 69%
Series resultStray Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2