Stray Team vs Rostik Team — prediction BSB 10 · Dota 2

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BetBoom Streamers Battle 10 · BO3

result vs prediction

Stray Teamloss 1:2

series probability

40%60%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Rostik Teamwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Stray Team

No games played over 6 months.

Rostik Team

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

475 picks · 455 bans

50%

Tiny

440 picks · 517 bans

49%

Ringmaster

429 picks · 200 bans

52%

Terrorblade

327 picks · 582 bans

47%

Storm Spirit

288 picks · 403 bans

53%

Ancient Apparition

284 picks · 604 bans

56%

Tusk

276 picks · 176 bans

47%

Windranger

262 picks · 74 bans

45%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Stray Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total60% Rostik Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct41:29

Stray Team 46%Rostik Team 54%

The model gave 54% on Rostik Team — the game was taken by Rostik Team in 48:05.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo