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Streamers League #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Stray Teamwin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stariy_bog Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Stray Team

Necrophos
Necrophossignature
Stray · 9 games
67%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Goodoq · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
Vovapain · 8 games
38%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Stray · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Vovapain · 7 games
57%
Pudge
Pudge
DkFogas · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Goodoq · 4 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
Stray · 4 games
75%

Stariy_bog Team

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Коля · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
Stariy bog · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
senna · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Zloba · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristleback
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
meLes · 2 games
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
Stariy bog · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Zloba · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
521 picks · 340 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
452 picks · 245 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
403 picks · 183 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
356 picks · 327 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 514 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 292 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
297 picks · 135 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 518 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Stray Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Stariy_bog Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
Stray Team 45%Stariy_bog Team 55%
The model gave 55% on Stariy_bog Team — the game was taken by Stariy_bog Team in 24:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursazvёzd
49% · 89 games53% · 44 games
IoStariy bog
Io
Timbersaw
TimbersawDkFogas
42% · 172 games54% · 41 game
SvenEvelone
Sven
Necrophos
NecrophosStray
53% · 88 games49% · 160 games
BatriderDaxak
Batrider
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionVovapain
48% · 28 games47% · 187 games
Dark WillowDjeka
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGoodoq
50% · 220 games56% · 165 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Game 2prediction missed48:28
Stray Team 45%Stariy_bog Team 55%
The model gave 55% on Stariy_bog Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenzvёzd
55% · 74 games58% · 24 games
Death ProphetDaxak
Death Prophet
Sniper
SniperStray
50% · 38 games51% · 450 games
TinyStariy bog
Tiny
Windranger
WindrangerDkFogas
52% · 352 games49% · 85 games
Faceless VoidEvelone
Faceless Void
Rubick
RubickVovapain
48% · 251 game47% · 207 games
TechiesMiposhka
Techies
Tusk
TuskGoodoq
47% · 328 games48% · 277 games
Dark WillowDjeka
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed0:0
Stray Team 45%Stariy_bog Team 55%
The model gave 55% on Stariy_bog Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenzvёzd
53% · 63 games46% · 169 games
ViperStariy bog
Viper
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDkFogas
54% · 98 games49% · 126 games
LifestealerEvelone
Lifestealer
Windranger
WindrangerStray
51% · 294 games52% · 100 games
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkGoodoq
54% · 537 games46% · 243 games
SnapfireDjeka
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerVovapain
47% · 69 games47% · 423 games
RubickMiposhka
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteStariy_bog Team · 62%
Series resultStray Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3