PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
strongboyswin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoLogoJustMMRloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
strongboys
No games played over 6 months.
NoLogoJustMMR
Windrangeroften banned
legacy · 4 games
Ogre Magi
Flash · 3 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 3 games
Rubick
G.T.I · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
G.T.I · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Flash · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
550 picks · 828 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 368 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 643 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 578 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 750 bans
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 584 bans
Mars
344 picks · 475 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
strongboys 78%NoLogoJustMMR 22%
The model gave 78% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 23:45.
Game 2prediction correct31:21
strongboys 78%NoLogoJustMMR 22%
The model gave 78% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 35:42.
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 78%
Series resultstrongboys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2