European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
summer bearwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hive-loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
summer bear
Techies
Delight · 8 games
Hoodwink
Delight · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Muertaoften banned
zuyzyan · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
azimoff · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Axeoften banned
azimoff · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Delight · 2 games
Hive-
Ringmaster
slimeyao · 6 games
Rubick
slimeyao · 6 games
Tiny
byun · 6 games
Hoodwink
slimeyao · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 4 games
Chenoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 3 games
Kezoften banned
byun · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
636 picks · 434 bans
Rubick
556 picks · 313 bans
Phoenix
488 picks · 588 bans
Tiny
461 picks · 393 bans
Pangolier
435 picks · 647 bans
Puck
351 picks · 1020 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 532 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 302 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% summer bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% summer bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:38
summer bear 53%Hive- 47%
The model gave 53% on summer bear — the game was taken by summer bear in 57:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendzuyzyan
Nature's Prophetbyun
InvokerPanda
Treant Protectorkur0patbI4
Doomazimoff
Lionxsvampire
Ogre Magimonodrama
TechiesDelight
Game 2prediction correct41:18
summer bear 54%Hive- 46%
The model gave 54% on summer bear — the game was taken by summer bear in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerzuyzyan
Shadow Fiendbyun
Dawnbreakerazimoff
Rubickxsvampire
Void SpiritPanda
Banekur0patbI4
Undyingmonodrama
HoodwinkDelight
Model check result
Model favoritesummer bear · 57%
Series resultsummer bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2