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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
summer bearloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

summer bear

No games played over 6 months.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 25 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
raregods · 23 games
48%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Katsura · 17 games
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 16 games
19%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 15 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
613 picks · 385 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
505 picks · 278 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
494 picks · 581 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 392 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
415 picks · 578 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
350 picks · 957 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 282 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
335 picks · 882 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% summer bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
summer bear 37%VP.Prodigy 63%
The model gave 63% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by summer bear.
Game 2prediction correct
summer bear 37%VP.Prodigy 63%
The model gave 63% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Game 3prediction correct
summer bear 37%VP.Prodigy 63%
The model gave 63% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 63%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3