ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionSMSUPER MEGA SQUADwin 1:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
DD2Playersloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SUPER MEGA SQUAD
Anti-Mageoften banned
7jesu · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 1 game
Grimstroke
Kidaro · 1 game
Hoodwink
velheor · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
GGwpLanaya · 1 game
Iooften banned
SoNNeikO · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
MieRo · 1 game
D2Players
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
429 picks · 172 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 472 bans
Nyx Assassin
306 picks · 623 bans
Puck
301 picks · 697 bans
Mars
298 picks · 526 bans
Hoodwink
273 picks · 114 bans
Lina
259 picks · 338 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% SUPER MEGA SQUAD
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% D2Players
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:22
SUPER MEGA SQUAD 46%D2Players 54%
The model gave 54% on D2Players — the game was taken by SUPER MEGA SQUAD in 41:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2Players · 54%
Series resultSUPER MEGA SQUAD 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1