Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 2:1series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
iG Vitalityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
Rubick
sheep · 2 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 1 game
Mirana
sheep · 1 game
Snapfire
sheep · 1 game
Tusk
sheep · 1 game
iG Vitality
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 5 games
Clockwerk
Sj · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 3 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Sj · 3 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
Summer · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Summer · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
371 picks · 347 bans
Tusk
332 picks · 311 bans
Marci
267 picks · 506 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 568 bans
Undying
249 picks · 463 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 599 bans
Snapfire
220 picks · 126 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 348 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% iG Vitality
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% iG Vitality
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:23
Supernova 39%iG Vitality 61%
The model gave 61% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Miranasheep
Phantom Lancerukiyo
46% · 74 games
Ember SpiritSummer
40% · 21 game
LichSj
Game 2prediction missed37:21
Supernova 37%iG Vitality 63%
The model gave 63% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by Supernova in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshakersheep
Shadow Fiendukiyo
46% · 9 games
BatriderSummer
little data
LichSj
Game 3prediction missed59:33
Supernova 36%iG Vitality 64%
The model gave 64% on iG Vitality — the game was taken by Supernova in 1:14:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Willowsheep
Templar Assassinukiyo
71% · 3 games
LycanSummer
63% · 4 games
UndyingSj
Model check result
Model favoriteiG Vitality · 70%
Series resultSupernova 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3