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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Supernovaloss 0:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Brightwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Supernova

Rubick
Rubick
sheep · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sheep · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
sheep · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
sheep · 4 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
0%

Team Bright

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Irving · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 3 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Undyne_ · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
997 picks · 692 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
642 picks · 476 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
591 picks · 936 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 406 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 418 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
531 picks · 371 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1208 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
506 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:31
Supernova 45%Team Bright 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Rubick
Rubicksheep
47% · 209 games58% · 109 games
Leshracphoenix
Leshrac
50% · 74 games
RikiIrving
Riki
50% · 26 games
LichUndyne_
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 51%
Series resultTeam Bright 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1