BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TToLightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Surge Gaming
Enchantressoften banned
Hara · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Irving · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
Hara · 3 games
Svenoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Night · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Night · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Night · 2 games
ToLight
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
330 picks · 311 bans
Puck
323 picks · 806 bans
Snapfire
279 picks · 140 bans
Pugna
278 picks · 311 bans
Dawnbreaker
277 picks · 755 bans
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 173 bans
Tusk
270 picks · 248 bans
Marci
260 picks · 796 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Surge Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Surge Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
Surge Gaming 56%ToLight 44%
The model gave 56% on Surge Gaming — the game was taken by Surge Gaming in 27:36.
Game 2prediction correct21:15
Surge Gaming 56%ToLight 44%
The model gave 56% on Surge Gaming — the game was taken by Surge Gaming in 21:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteSurge Gaming · 56%
Series resultSurge Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2