PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSXSustancia Xwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LLowProfileloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sustancia X
No games played over 6 months.
LowProfile
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
499 picks · 668 bans
Muerta
475 picks · 409 bans
Batrider
464 picks · 592 bans
Clockwerk
460 picks · 567 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 519 bans
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 795 bans
Magnus
417 picks · 938 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Sustancia X
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% LowProfile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
Sustancia X 49%LowProfile 51%
The model gave 51% on LowProfile — the game was taken by LowProfile in 23:48.
Game 2prediction missed31:16
Sustancia X 49%LowProfile 51%
The model gave 51% on LowProfile — the game was taken by Sustancia X in 27:45.
Game 3prediction missed28:20
Sustancia X 49%LowProfile 51%
The model gave 51% on LowProfile — the game was taken by Sustancia X in 26:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteLowProfile · 51%
Series resultSustancia X 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3