ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Allianceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
419 picks · 196 bans
Mars
386 picks · 572 bans
Puck
380 picks · 870 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 205 bans
Grimstroke
345 picks · 326 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 230 bans
Centaur Warrunner
285 picks · 389 bans
Ancient Apparition
271 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:22
T1 48%Alliance 52%
The model gave 52% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 31:38.
Game 2prediction correct14:18
T1 48%Alliance 52%
The model gave 52% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 33:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 52%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2